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TOA Paint Thailand PCL: Positive surprise in all-time high core profit in 1Q21

  • In line with our estimate but beat the consensus forecast
  • TOA reported all-time high core profit of Bt615m in 1Q21
  • We expect core profit growth of 10-15% YoY in 2Q21

A positive surprise to the market in 1Q21 new high core profit will drive share price rally. Short-term catalyst is consensus earnings upgrade flow. Valuations are compelling at a 2021 PER of 28.4x (cheaper at 26.9x excluding cash and near cash), 2SD below its long-term mean (at 37x) since IPO in 2017. Our BUY rating stands at a YE21 DCF derived-target price of Bt45 (6.6% WACC and 2% terminal growth.

In line with our estimate but beat the consensus forecast

TOA reported all-time high core profit of Bt615m in 1Q21, a jump of 21% YoY and 24% QoQ. Core profit was in tune with our expectation but 13% ahead of the street forecast. Including Bt55m net-gains of extra items, net profit was Bt670m, up 59% YoY and 36% QoQ.


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