Poland's shock rate cut prompts FX losses and bias accusations ahead of election

  • Inflation is down more than headline data suggest (3m avg mom at 56-month lows) but not fast enough to justify 75bps cut

  • Poland is seeing signs of a demand slowdown, but not comprehensively enough to warrant a recession-level rate-cut pace

  • After 3.1% zloty depreciation, rate cut could backfire and damage ruling PiS party's chances in crucial October election

September 8th, 2023
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