Strategy Note /

PAKISTAN: FATF “Grey List” inclusion likely and immaterial

    Hasnain Malik
    Hasnain Malik

    Strategy & Head of Equity Research

    Tellimer Research
    28 February 2018
    Published byTellimer Research
    Pakistan’s inclusion in the FATF “Black List”, which would trigger the draconian impact of financial sanctions, is very unlikely in our view. However, inclusion in the “Grey List”, which would have very little impact on remittance, portfolio capital and direct investment flows, appears highly likely (as early as June 2018) in our view. In this report we review the structure of FATF, its historic inclusion of many Frontier and Emerging markets on its “Grey List”, the recent FATF meeting which reportedly included discussion of re-including Pakistan on the “Grey List”, the geopolitical subtext of this discussion and the resulting investment implications.