Pakistan: DSA and restructuring analysis shows bonds are near recovery value

  • With public debt below 75% of GDP, Pakistan’s solvency risk is low and provides limited rational for nominal haircuts

  • With GEFR projected at 10.5-12.5% of GDP from FY22/23-FY25/26, cashflow relief will be required without IMF programme

  • 10yr eurobonds trade roughly in line with estimated US$53-71 recovery value range (cUS$60 midpoint); retain Buy
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