Equity Analysis /

PAKISTAN CEMENTS: Total volumes decline 5% yoy in Sep 2017; producers blame political uncertainty

    Vahaj Ahmed
    Vahaj Ahmed

    Head of Industrials Equity Research

    Tellimer Research
    2 October 2017
    Published byTellimer Research
    Total volumes decline 5% yoy in September 2017; Q1 18 registers 12% yoy growth. According to the preliminary data (received from one of the local brokers), total cement volumes in Pakistan declined 5% yoy to 2,902 kilotonnes (kt) in September 2017; local volumes remained flat at 2,530kt, exports declined 29% yoy to 372kt. As a result, total volumes grew 12% yoy in Q1 18 (July to September 2017) to 10,050kt; local volumes grew 18% yoy to 8,793kt, exports declined 19% yoy to 1,257kt. Local sales continue to register a trailing 12-month growth of 10% yoy, which is a positive indicator, in our view (see Figure 1). Assuming local volumes continue to grow at this rate for the remaining three quarters, overall volumes can still grow 10% yoy in FY18 (in line with our estimates).