Macro Analysis /
Pakistan

Pakistan and Covid-19: If a buying opportunity exists, Pakistan is well placed

  • Pakistan economy faces growth concerns, but BoP issues seem largely addressed

  • Pakistan retains ability to ramp up both monetary and fiscal stimuli

  • Equity market will likely remain volatile; we like domestic demand led plays

Raza Jafri
Raza Jafri

Executive Director, Research

Follow
Intermarket Securities
22 April 2020

In this 34-page presentation, we look at Pakistan's economy, valuations and equity market outlook in the context of the Covid-19 crisis, explore the country's domestic demand theme and present our top picks. 

Economy: Solutions for BoP stability are available 

  • Growth is a concern but this is not unique to Pakistan
  • BoP issues are being addressed
  • Further policy action will likely ensue
  • Once the outbreak is contained, domestic demand will drive economic growth

Equity Market: Likely to remain volatile

  • KSE-100 had been under pressure over the last several years; the bar has been set low
  • Valuations are near cross-cycle lows; we eye an Index range of 27,000pts (-20%) to 41,000pts (+25%)
  • We favour strong business groups and domestic demand stories

Risks 

  • Sharp and prolonged economic fallout from the pandemic
  • Any political disruption and social upheaval