Strategy Note /
Asia

PAKISTAN: 2018 election scenarios through the fog of disqualification, litigation and constitution

    Hasnain Malik
    Hasnain Malik

    Strategy & Head of Equity Research

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    Tellimer Research
    25 February 2018
    Published byTellimer Research
    Equity market participants, particularly locals who drive over 90% of daily equity market activity, clearly care about civilian politics and in this report we discuss potential outcomes of the general election scheduled for H2 18. We judge there is a 50% probability of the most market-friendly outcome – that is another government led by the current ruling party, the PMLN (the Sharif brothers). We see a 35% probability of the most market-negative outcome (although, ironically, the most positive in terms of initiating structural reform) – a multi-party coalition government led by the PTI (Imran Khan). We see a 15% probability for a market-neutral outcome of an extended, de-politicised, interim administration (either as a result of delayed or disputed elections or due to protracted negotiations among the political parties following a hung Parliament). We see 0% probability of martial law.