Equity Analysis /

Ngern Tid Lor: Ongoing growth through 2022

  • 4Q21 profit to mark a rise of 31% YoY (and 1% QoQ)

  • YoY & QoQ NII and non-NII expansion expected for 4Q21

  • Bottom-line of Bt3.8bn forecast for 2022, up 18.1% YoY

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
28 January 2022

Our profit estimates are Bt818m for 4Q21, up by 31% YoY and 1% QoQ, and Bt3.8bn for 2022, up 18% YoY (led by loan growth, rising insurance premium sales, and a lower cost/income ratio). Further-more, TIDLOR’s planned collateralized lending biz and/or lighter LLPs could make for upside to our 2022 earnings forecast. BUY!

4Q21 profit to mark a rise of 31% YoY (and 1% QoQ)

We expect TIDLOR to report 4Q21 earnings of Bt818bn, up by 31.3% YoY, and 1% QoQ, even though the effective interest rate for truck loans was cut from 15% in 3Q21 to 10%+ (TIDLOR launched a promo-tional rate, effective Sep 1, 2021 through March 31, 2022) and we assume a cost/income ratio of 57.6%, up from 56.2% in 3Q21 (due to heavier staff costs and seasonally heavy marketing spend). The drivers of the modeled bottom-line expansion were lending and insurance premium sales growth.