Oil Update - The green transition and the new oil price regime

  • The green transition will lead to a structural decline in oil demand. Uncertainty has more to do with when the peak will come and how fast the drop in demand will be.
  • Peak demand will intensify competition among producers, possibly opening the door to a new oil price regime. Based on the current cost structure of oil producers, prices would struggle to go above USD 50/bbl.
  • However, among oil producers, the winners and losers of the green revolution will not be determined only by their cost effectiveness. What will play a role in the production race will be the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated by the production, transportation and refining of a barrel of oil. On this metric, several low-cost producers do not rank well.

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