Strategy Note /
Global

Oil spat turns into a splat: A reminder of the winners and losers in EM

  • Oil price fall obviously compounds Covid-19 sudden stop for oil exporters and cushions it for importers, but unequally

  • Exporters: High FX reserves, flexible FX rate, low fiscal break-even, non-oil growth drivers – eg Russia over Saudi-GCC

  • Importers: Low trade, remittance links with oil exporters – eg China, Thailand, Kenya over India, Pakistan, Philippines

Oil spat turns into a splat: A reminder of the winners and losers in EM
Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik

Strategy & Head of Equity Research

Follow
Tellimer Research
21 April 2020
Published byTellimer Research




Related reading

GCC: The Gulf is not a safe haven unless (at least) oil prices recover

Oil price shock: Assessing current account vulnerabilities for oil exporters

Oil war: Saudi, Russia can sustain a long war, but a 35% price drop shortens it