Equity Analysis /
Thailand

AP Thailand PCL: New condo, new SDH brand, new baseline, and new record presales

  • Lining up for record presales in 4Q22, led by project launches

  • New MODEN brand targets new client group

  • Life One Wireless fully transferred! And one more to come

Bualuang Securities
7 December 2022

AP will post record presales for 4Q22, led by a heavy project launch schedule. Moreover, its new SDH brand, MODEN (Bt3-5m/unit), will focus on a new customer group. AP closed one condo project in Oct and looks set to close another soon.

Lining up for record presales in 4Q22, led by project launches

The 4Q22 project plan of Bt26.4bn (up by 130% YoY and 66% QoQ, the heaviest launch quarter of 2022) is on-track. And last week, AP unveiled Aspire Onnut Station condo (Bt2.7bn). We expect a strong initial take-up rate of 30-35% (Bt800-900m) for the condo in 4Q22. Moreover, AP’s low-rise launch plan for the quarter is a new record—11 SDH projects worth Bt16.9bn and six TH projects worth Bt6.8bn. 4Q22-to-date presales are Bt13bn and on Dec 17-18 AP will launch its final six SDH projects (together worth Bt8.4bn). Therefore, our 4Q22 presales assumption is a record high of Bt15bn, up by 92% YoY and 26% QoQ (the firm’s current presales record is Bt14.7bn, set in 4Q17). That would make for 2022 presales of about Bt52bn, above the firm’s full-year target of Bt50bn.