Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Muangthai Capital PCL: MTC—resurrection!

  • Will MTC achieve our loan growth assumption?

  • Did NIM bottom out in 1Q22?

  • Will higher inflation precipitate a higher loan default rate?

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

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Bualuang Securities
5 July 2022

MTC executives spoke at our BLS Thai Corporate Day: Recovery & Beyond on July 1. We expect the finco’s 1Q22 result to prove to be the weakest quarter of the year. Earnings will expand strongly in 2H22, we believe, despite inflation and higher funding costs. Hence, our 2022 profit forecast is Bt5.9bn, up 18.6% YoY. BUY!

Will MTC achieve our loan growth assumption?

We anticipate 2022 loan growth of 20% YoY (below MTC’s target of 30%). The driver is ongoing sales-point expansion—our model had assumed 6,400 sales points by YE22 (below management’s target of 6,500 sales points), but MTC already had 6,475 sales points at end-June 2022 (beating our YE22 assumption and equal to 99.6% of MTC’s YE22 target).