Macro Analysis /
Mexico

Mexico: Job losses of workers affiliated to IMSS continue in July

  • During the month, 3,907 jobs of persons affiliated to the institute were lost, moderating relative to the last months

  • Thus, accumulated losses since March reached 1.1 million positions, with total workers standing at 19.5 million

  • Considering recent dynamics and other activity data, we expect positive job creation as soon as in August

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Director of Economic Research

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Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano

Senior Economist, Mexico

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Banorte
13 August 2020
Published byBanorte

Job losses of people affiliated to IMSS continue in July, although at a more modest pace 

  • On 12 August, the Social Security Institute (IMSS) released its employment figures for July 

  • During the month, 3,907 jobs of persons affiliated to the institute were lost, moderating sharply relative to the last four months. Thus, accumulated losses since March reached 1.1 million positions 

  • As a result, total workers stood at 19.5 million, lowest since December 2017 

  • 725 businesses were added to the list, with two consecutive months higher. In our opinion, this is positive and consistent with signs of stronger economic activity in the month 

  • Average daily wages came in at $405.2 (US$18.1), increasing 2.7% y/y in real terms, lower than in June (4.7%), both on lower nominal wages and higher inflation

  • Considering recent dynamics and other activity data, we expect positive job creation as soon as in August. Nevertheless, risks for additional losses prevail as the backdrop remains complex

Jobs according to persons affiliated to IMSS kept declining in July, although at a more modest pace. On 12 August, the Social Security Institute (IMSS) released its employment report for July. Within, we highlight the elimination of 3,907 formal jobs, moderating relative to losses in each of the last four months (see chart below, left). We note this contrasts with the recent trend in broader employment figures compiled by INEGI, which showed an increase in both the formal and informal sectors in June. According to IMSS’s figures, the accumulated decline since March stands at 1,117,584, highest for any five-month period since data is available. As a result, total formal employees stood at 19.5 million, lowest since December 2017 (chart below, right).