Sovereign Analysis /

MEXICO ELECTIONS: Meet the candidates - José Antonio Meade (PRI)

    Rafael Elias
    Rafael Elias

    Director, Latin America Credit

    Tellimer Research
    6 March 2018
    Published byTellimer Research
    José Antonio “Pepe” Meade is in our opinion the best of the contenders for the Mexican presidency on 1 July. However, he has not been able to connect with the voters and lags far behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO, of the left-wing MORENA party) in polls, in third place. We believe investors underestimate how bad for markets an AMLO presidency could be. Unless Meade narrows the gap when the campaigns officially start on 30 March, we expect equities and fixed income to suffer during Q2, and that this poor performance will likely continue throughout the rest of the year if AMLO wins.