Possible economic rebound at the start of 4Q21
Weekly international reserves report. Last week, net international reserves rose by US$69 million, closing at US$198.9 billion. According to Banxico’s report, this was explained by a positive valuation effect in institutional assets. So far this year, the central bank’s international reserves have increased by US$3.3 billion.
Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (October). This release will include the first estimate for October, as well as revised figures for September. We recall that August’s mid-point forecast was at 6.2% y/y (using sa figures), much higher than the 3.8% in the GDP-proxy (IGAE). September’s estimate, currently at 5.0%, will likely be revised lower, especially considering industrial production and the advanced 3Q21 GDP, which disappointed lower. Specifically, it is likely that there was a sequential decline in activity. For October, signals have been more positive. Virus conditions kept improving, driving mobility higher. This is also consistent with better dynamics in timelier data, such as IMEF’s PMIs. Given this and a more favorable base effect, we could see a sequential rebound in activity.