Macro Analysis /
Mexico

Mexico: Ahead of the curve

  • Attention this week will be on June’s retail sales, probably showing an improvement on reopening of the economy

  • Timelier data such as auto, gasoline and ANTAD sales suggest a better performance, albeit with declines in annual terms

  • Specifically, we expect a 16.6% y/y fall (previous: -23.7%), while in sequential terms activity would rise 7.8% m/m

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Director of Economic Research

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Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano

Senior Economist, Mexico

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Banorte
16 August 2020
Published byBanorte

June’s retail sales to improve on the reopening of the economy

Retail sales (June). We anticipate a 16.6% y/y contraction, above the -23.7% of the previous month, accelerating on the back of the economic reopening which also induced higher mobility levels. We should also mention that the month had two additional working days relative to the same period a year ago, which in our view could be slightly positive. In seasonally adjusted terms, this would result in a 7.8% m/m rebound, a new historical high benefitted strongly by a very low base, hovering about 3% below its previous minimum. On a year-to-date basis, this figure would imply a 10.3% y/y contraction. Mostly all signals from related indicators suggest a better performance, including auto, gasoline and ANTAD sales, among others. Going forward, we reiterate our view of protracted weakness in retail sales even though it is likely that the valley in terms of dynamism has already passed.