Macro Analysis /

Mexico: Ahead of Curve

  • We expect ANTAD’s sales in August to maintain a positive trend, boosted by fundamentals despite higher inflation

  • Banxico will publish the weekly international reserves report, which YTD have decreased by US$3.9 billion

  • Markets will be closed on Friday (Sep-16) due to the celebration of the Independence Day holiday

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Director of Economic Research

Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano

Senior Economist, Mexico

9 September 2022
Published byBanorte

Few relevant figures, focused on August’s ANTAD sales

ANTAD same-store sales (August); previous: 3.3% y/y in real terms. We believe ANTAD sales have been tracking the recovery of activity quite closely  –especially consumption– in the last few months. However, price pressures have taken a toll on dynamism. As such, we expect an additional drag in August, with annual inflation climbing to 8.70% from 8.15% in the previous month. Meanwhile, other signals are mixed, with IMEF’s non-manufacturing PMI moderating, while auto sales rebounded 4.1% m/m. Nevertheless, support from fundamentals, mainly employment and remittances, along with resilient mobility, could be enough to keep driving growth.

Weekly international reserves report. Last week, net international reserves decreased by US$287 million, closing at US$198.5 billion. According to Banxico’s report, this was mainly explained by a negative valuation effect in institutional assets. Year-to-date, the central bank’s international reserves have fallen by US$3.9 billion.