Macro Analysis /
Global

Mexico: Ahead of Curve

  • We expect ANTAD’s sales in August to maintain a positive trend, boosted by fundamentals despite higher inflation

  • Banxico will publish the weekly international reserves report, which YTD have decreased by US$3.9 billion

  • Markets will be closed on Friday (Sep-16) due to the celebration of the Independence Day holiday

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Director of Economic Research

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Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano

Senior Economist, Mexico

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Banorte
9 September 2022
Published byBanorte

Few relevant figures, focused on August’s ANTAD sales

ANTAD same-store sales (August); previous: 3.3% y/y in real terms. We believe ANTAD sales have been tracking the recovery of activity quite closely  –especially consumption– in the last few months. However, price pressures have taken a toll on dynamism. As such, we expect an additional drag in August, with annual inflation climbing to 8.70% from 8.15% in the previous month. Meanwhile, other signals are mixed, with IMEF’s non-manufacturing PMI moderating, while auto sales rebounded 4.1% m/m. Nevertheless, support from fundamentals, mainly employment and remittances, along with resilient mobility, could be enough to keep driving growth.

Weekly international reserves report. Last week, net international reserves decreased by US$287 million, closing at US$198.5 billion. According to Banxico’s report, this was mainly explained by a negative valuation effect in institutional assets. Year-to-date, the central bank’s international reserves have fallen by US$3.9 billion.