Macro Analysis /

Mexico: Ahead of Curve

  • March’s Timely Indicator of Economic Activity to remain positive in sequential term, suggesting the recovery continued

  • Meanwhile, signs for activity in April are mixed, with timely data showing diverging trends amid further price pressures

  • The only other relevant report to be released includes the weekly international reserves report

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Director of Economic Research

Francisco Jose Flores Serrano
Francisco Jose Flores Serrano

Senior Economist, Mexico

13 May 2022
Published byBanorte

Activity likely decelerated in April, albeit with mixed signals so far

Weekly international reserves report. Last week, net international reserves decreased by US$377 million, closing at US$198.8 billion. According to Banxico’s report, this was explained by a negative valuation effect in institutional assets. Year-to-date, the central bank’s international reserves have fallen by US$3.6 billion.

Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (April). This release will include the first estimate for April, as well as revised figures for March. We recall that February’s mid-point forecast stood at 2.8% y/y (using sa figures), just an inch above the 2.7% in the GDP-proxy (IGAE). Turning to March, 1Q22 preliminary GDP pointed to a moderation in annual terms. However, the IP report was better than expected in said publication. Therefore, sequential growth might remain positive. Signals for April are more mixed, with stability in epidemiological conditions but increasing challenges in the international front, particularly due to lockdowns in China and prevailing price pressures. As such, we have seen conflicting signs in timely data, with IMEF indicators diverging but ANTAD sales recovering some ground.