Activity likely decelerated in April, albeit with mixed signals so far
Weekly international reserves report. Last week, net international reserves decreased by US$377 million, closing at US$198.8 billion. According to Banxico’s report, this was explained by a negative valuation effect in institutional assets. Year-to-date, the central bank’s international reserves have fallen by US$3.6 billion.
Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (April). This release will include the first estimate for April, as well as revised figures for March. We recall that February’s mid-point forecast stood at 2.8% y/y (using sa figures), just an inch above the 2.7% in the GDP-proxy (IGAE). Turning to March, 1Q22 preliminary GDP pointed to a moderation in annual terms. However, the IP report was better than expected in said publication. Therefore, sequential growth might remain positive. Signals for April are more mixed, with stability in epidemiological conditions but increasing challenges in the international front, particularly due to lockdowns in China and prevailing price pressures. As such, we have seen conflicting signs in timely data, with IMEF indicators diverging but ANTAD sales recovering some ground.