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Sberbank: May 2021 RAS results – Moderately positive

  • Sberbank (SBER RX / SBERP RX: O/W; TP RUB309 / RUB285) reported May 2021 RAS numbers
  • Corporate loan portfolio grew 0.2% m/m (+10% y/y) and 0.5% m/m on FX-adj. basis.
  • F&C income grew 38% y/y in May (+20% y/y in 5M21) from the low base of May 2020

Sberbank (SBER RX / SBERP RX: O/W; TP RUB309 / RUB285) reported May 2021 RAS numbers. The bottom line grew 126% y/y in May from the low base of last year with ROAE of 22.3%. The provisioning reduction coupled with loan book growth continued driving the bottom line. Overall we see the fundamental picture remaining supportive for Sberbank, with economic recovery supporting lending growth and CoR normalization, while potentially growing interest rates providing support to NIM. While the stock is generally sensitive to external market factors, the 2021F dividend yield of nearly 7.4% / 7.8% on ord./pref. shares is a solid downside protection, we think.

  • Corporate loan portfolio grew 0.2% m/m (+10% y/y) and 0.5% m/m on FX-adj. basis. Retail loan book grew 2.1% m/m in May (+24% y/y), accelerating vs 2.4% m/m in April, driven by both mortgages and unsecured consumer loans.

  • NII grew 6% y/y in May, slowing down vs 12% y/y in April given the DIA contributions reduction booked in May 2020 retrospectively for 5M20. Adjusted for that, we see 15% y/y NII growth (+5% m/m), supported by loan book growth. 3m rolling NIM (on total assets) declined 33bp y/y and 19bp y/y adj. for DIA effect mentioned above (-2bp m/m), which is less than 50bp reduction currently guided by management. Higher rates on floating rate corporate loans provide support to NIM.

  • F&C income grew 38% y/y in May (+20% y/y in 5M21) from the low base of May 2020, when transactional activity was temporarily distressed on the back of lockdown.

  • Opex grew 5% y/y in May and 9% y/y in 5M21, also reflecting the low base of May 2021.

  • FX-adjusted CoR came at 0.7% in May (-25bp m/m), we estimate, being near its normalized levels amid recovering economic activity and loan portfolio quality remaining strong.

  • As a result, May 2021 net profit came at RUB102bn (+126% y/y) with 22.3% ROAE.

Figure 1: Sberbank May 2021 RAS Highlights

Source: Company data, Alfa-Bank; () we are approximating RAS interest-earning assets as gross loans plus securities portfolio; (*) includes both loans at amortized costs and at FV through P&L


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The contents of this document have been prepared by Joint Stock Company “Alfa-Bank” ("Alfa Bank") as Investment Research within the meaning of Article 36 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/5...

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