Strategy Note /

March - In Like A Lion, Out Like A Lamb?

  • Much like the weather, much like the old proverb, cross asset markets are swinging widely - I use my BTV notes as Musing

  • CS has long been EU's sick bank - its woes are not systemic; nor are ZIRP winners in US. CBs can both walk & chew gum

  • Fed raising rate till inflation hits 2% is over, battle won by higher infl target. Fed raise 25 & done = $ down > ROW OP

Jay Pelosky
Jay Pelosky

TPW Founder & Global Strategist

TPW Advisory
17 March 2023
Published byTPW Advisory

First off, Happy St Patrick’s Day to all the Irish out there – given Mom’s maiden name is Boyle you know I am celebrating! And hey we survived this week so that’s another reason to raise a glass.


Recent market action is just like the weather outside, which brings to mind the old proverb in the title. Research indicates the origin of the proverb goes back to astronomy and how Leo, the Lion constellation, rises in the East early this month while Aries, the Lamb constellation, sets in the West towards the end of the month. It was adapted for agricultural purposes to describe March’s transitional weather back in the 1700s with the first noted reference in 1732, almost 300 years ago.


I like old sayings or cliches because they have stood the test of time – much as we all hope our portfolios and investments are able to stand the test of time – even testing times like these.


I had the chance to opine in real time yesterday morning on Bloomberg’s The Open show (I come on at about the 8 minute mark). I always enjoy these hits because it forces one to think deeply about what one’s view is so that you can present it succinctly, in tv time. So, my process over the years basically entails writing my thoughts down before the show. To be forced to do so in such volatile times is very valuable.


The way I learned it at MS is to be ready to go with my POV & to know what I want to say even if the questions don’t take me there directly. Today, it is reusable for our Musings. So, what follows is the essence of my BTV notes updated to reflect the last 24 hours. The focus was on CS and the ECB rate decision.