SABUY’s ecosystem is expanding in scope and scale. Its short-term earnings profile is strong (despite COVID-19) and its long-term outlook is stronger. Given SABUY’s large user base, its current valuation is very cheap. There is potential for its market cap to rise to Bt30bn, implying stock price upside of 165%.
Strong 3Q21 earnings, despite COVID-19
We expect SABUY’s 3Q21 revenue from top-up kiosks and vending machines to drop, due to the Jul-Aug lockdown. The food court service business hasn’t been severely affected by COVID-19, as it operates on flat service contracts. Although food courts have been temporarily closed, food court operators continue to pay for the service. SABUY first acquired a 20% stake in ATP Friend Service Co Ltd in Mar 2021, then raised it to 38% in June, which will add to its 3Q21 result. And the firm has remained lean by controlling costs. We expect 3Q21 earnings of Bt46m, up 100% YoY (flattish QoQ).