India’s Covid-19 trauma is tragic and prompts a stress test of its equity story

  • A full-blown healthcare crisis on a tragic scale is underway. Obviously, 12% and 38% GDP and earnings growth is at risk

  • Poor policies can be reversed but prolonged lockdowns not feasible due to urban population density and informal labour

  • Equity stress test: cut c40% Sensex EPS growth in 2021 to c15% and PE goes from 21x to 25x (merely 25% above 5y median)
April 23rd, 2021
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