IN : Hindustan Petroleum - Lower risk reward

Record earnings in 4Q driven entirely by inventory gains. Core earnings were slightly below our expectations. HPCL declared dividend of Rs22.75/share. We expect recovery in volumes and GRMs in FY22F-24F, assuming the current negative impact on economic activity due to Covid to be short-lived. We downgrade to Hold with unchanged TP of Rs285 (1x Mar23F P/BV, 15% ROE in FY23F). Large off-balance sheet debt will keep valuations under check.

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