Macro Analysis /
Global

IMF implied FX forecasts may be a signal of misalignment

  • We derive 'implied FX forecasts' from IMF WEO data by dividing LCY and US$-denominated GDP forecasts

  • Differences between implied forecasts and inflation differentials could signal currency over/undervaluation

  • Potential overvalued currencies: ETB, DZD, MWK, AFN, MDL. Potential undervalued currencies: TRY, UAH, SRD, CLP, UZS

IMF implied FX forecasts may be a signal of misalignment
Patrick Curran
Tellimer Research
28 May 2021
Published by