Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: RFI for Egypt, programme switch for Ukraine

  • Disbursements under emergency facilities now reach 51 countries for a total of US$20bn
  • IMF approves RFI for Egypt and switches programme focus in Ukraine
  • Peru and Chile submit requests for new precautionary credit lines

Our updated tracker* captures 71 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is up by 6 since our last update). We note that our count of 71 includes three countries that now have two entries. 

Since our last update on Thursday 7 May, we identify 4 countries that have had emergency financing facilities approved, taking the total number of countries now to 51, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$20bn. The latest approvals include Egypt and Seychelles, and a second emergency disbursement for Kyrgyz Republic (the first country to have had two separate requests approved). We had, however, already anticipated three of these approvals over the last week in our previous overall count (we knew they were coming from the board schedule). In addition, we observe four new requests pending from Jamaica, Jordan, St Vincent, and Uzbekistan on the board schedule in coming days. 

Also this week, Peru and Chile have submitted requests for new precautionary credit lines (amounting to US$11bn and US$23.8bn, respectively) and Honduras reached staff-level agreement on the second review of its joint SBA/SCF, with augmented access. 

Board reviews are scheduled in coming days for existing arrangements for Benin (sixth review of the ECF) and Armenia (second review of SBA), although we had already anticipated them in our overall count after their staff-level agreements were announced. 

The IMF confirmed last week a change in the nature of programme discussions for Ukraine. The IMF said at its regular press briefing on 7 May that the programme discussions had switched from a three-year EFF (on which staff-level agreement was reached in December, pending completion of certain prior actions) to a new shorter 18-month SBA, with less structural conditionality. The size of the new SBA is around US$5bn, according to local reports. The switch in focus has been partly driven by the impact of coronavirus and an urgent financing need. IMF board approval of the new programme could come by the end of this month, at the soonest, after Ukraine's parliament passed the banking law earlier this week. 

Over half of the Fund's 189 members have requested help since the start of the coronavirus pandemic (54%).

See the full report for the complete list of 71 countries. 

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.



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Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Disbursements agreed for Uzbekistan and Jamaica

  • Disbursements under emergency facilities now reach 53 countries for a total of US$21bn
  • IMF completes programme reviews for Armenia and Benin
  • IMF staff conclude discussions on a new RFI for Mongolia
Stuart Culverhouse @
Tellimer Research
20 May 2020

Our updated tracker* captures 72 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is up by 1 since our last update). We note that our count of 72 includes three countries that now have two entries. 

There have been five events since our last update on 15 May, although we record only a new one in our tracker as we had anticipated four of them the last time. There have been four Board approvals, two emergency financing facilities (Uzbekistan and Jamaica) and two programme reviews (the second review of Armenia's SBA and the sixth and final review of Benin's ECF), although we knew all of these were coming from the IMF board schedule. The one new event concerns Mongolia, where IMF staff noted that they had concluded discussions with the authorities on a RFI on 18 May. Board approval is expected in early June. 

Since our last update on 15 May, the two latest approvals for emergency financing facilities takes the total number of countries now to 53 on our count, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$20.9bn. According to the IMF board schedule, there should be two more approvals today (Jordan and St Vincent), as we flagged last week. 

Over half of the Fund's 189 members have requested emergency help since the start of the coronavirus pandemic (54%). See the full report for the complete list of 72 countries covered in our tracker. 

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.


 
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Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Kenya and Ecuador join the list of approvals

  • This week saw new disbursements to Cameroon, Ecuador, Kenya and Tajikistan under the IMF's emergency facilities
  • We observe two new requests from Seychelles and Djibouti, which are on the schedule on 8 May; Egypt's request for 11 May
  • Disbursements under emergency facilities now to 48 countries for a total of US$17bn
Stuart Culverhouse @
Tellimer Research
7 May 2020

Our updated tracker* captures 65 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is up by 7 from our last update). 

Since our last update on Friday 1 May, we identify 7 countries that have had emergency financing facilities approved, taking the total number of countries now to 48, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$17.0bn. The latest approvals include Cameroon, Ecuador, Kenya and Tajikistan. We had already factored two of these seven approvals into our total tracker count (Ecuador and Kenya). In addition, we observe two new requests from Seychelles and Djibouti which are on the IMF board schedule on 8 May. We also note that Egypt's request is on the board schedule for 11 May (but we'd already factored its request into our total tracker count). Also this week, two countries had programme or lending facilities approved, although we knew they were coming and had also already factored them into our total tracker count (Georgia's sixth review of its EFF and Colombia's successor FCL).

The other main news over the last week has been Lebanon's request for an IMF programme. The authorities announced last Thursday that they had formally requested an IMF programme as part of the government’s economic recovery plan, although it's not clear if they are also seeking more immediate help under the RCF/RFI. However, we have not included Lebanon in our tracker as we think its crisis pre-dates the pandemic (doing so would take the total tracker count to 66).

Still, it is worth remembering that there have been no new IMF programmes approved yet. Out of all the countries that have had disbursements approved during this crisis period (we count 50), the vast majority (48) are emergency financings (RCF/RFI) and only two relate to modifications to existing programmes (Georgia and Togo). A further two countries – Honduras and Morocco – drew on resources already made available under their existing arrangements, Colombia has renewed its credit line (not a programme), and there are three board reviews pending following staff-level agreements on reviews under existing programmes. Excluding Ukraine and Ecuador (where new programmes will replace those that went off track), and Lebanon, the only new programme request we are aware of is Egypt. 

IMF MD Georgieva said on 15 April in her opening remarks to the IMF/WB Spring Meetings that 102 countries had requested emergency financing from the Fund so far and that the Board will have approved half of these requests by the end of that month. With demand running at 102 countries, that's over half (54%) of the Fund's 189 members. 

Sign up today to see the full IMF tracker data.

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.


 
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Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Agreement for Egypt, approval for Ukraine

  • Emergency financing now approved for 68 countries; 62 under emergency disbursements, 6 under existing programme reviews
  • Together with other facilities and drawings, and those that are pending, our tracker now stands at 80 countries in all
  • IMF reach staff-level agreement with Egypt on a new 12M US$5.2bn SBA, and Board approves 18M US$5bn SBA for Ukraine
Stuart Culverhouse @
Tellimer Research
10 June 2020

Our updated tracker* captures 80 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is unchanged since our last update, although the composition of entries has shifted slightly). Note that our count of 80 includes four countries that now have two entries.

Since our last update on 3 June, the IMF board has approved four new emergency financing disbursements (Mongolia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and PNG), taking the total number of countries now to 62 on our count, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$23.0bn. However, we had already anticipated these approvals in our grand total as we knew they were coming. Together with the approved programme reviews under their existing arrangements for six countries now (the latest being Barbados, joining those for Armenia, Benin, Georgia, Honduras and Togo), that takes the total number of countries for which emergency financing has been approved to 68.

According to the IMF board schedule, emergency financing requests for two countries are due by the end of this week, Guatemala (today) and Rwanda's second disbursement (tomorrow), although we had already anticipated these in our overall tracker too. These will take the total number of countries for which emergency disbursements have been approved to 63, as Rwanda is already counted under its first disbursement, and 69 overall.

Over the last week, the IMF board also approved a new 18-month US$5bn SBA for Ukraine (see here) and a programme review for Barbados (third review of its EFF), while Fund staff also reached staff-level agreement (SLA) with Egypt on a new 12-month US$5.2bn SBA. However, we had already anticipated all of these in our tracker too.

Whether Ukraine qualifies as being a beneficiary of emergency financing is moot; currently, the IMF does not classify Ukraine as such. Admittedly, its programme request pre-dates Covid-19, but programme discussions did shift from an EFF to a shorter SBA because of Covid-19.

For Egypt, approval of the SBA in coming weeks will take the IMF's total lending commitment to the country since Covid-19 to nearly US$8bn. Recall that the IMF already approved a RFI disbursement for Egypt on 11 May amounting to US$2.8bn. In total, that's the largest amount for any single country so far, excluding credit lines which the IMF have approved for Chile, Colombia, and Peru. It is well above the RFIs for Nigeria and Pakistan. And together with Egypt's US$5bn recent sovereign bond issuance, that's nearly US$13bn in new money, which may go some way to alleviating financing concerns there. Guatemala's request for a RFI also demonstrates that bond issuance does not preclude countries from tapping the IMF's emergency facilities.

We note that the countries that have received emergency disbursements cover a wide range of income levels, both rich and poor (in terms of GDP per capita). Many poor or low-income countries have received such disbursements, with Mozambique, Madagascar, CAR, Niger and Malawi the poorest five (with per capita income below US$500 in 2019). Of the soon to be 63 countries that have received emergency (RCF/RFI) disbursements, The Bahamas is the richest by far, with per capita GDP of US$33k in 2019, followed by several others with per capita income over US$10k (Seychelles, Panama, Maldives, Costa Rica, Grenada and St Lucia). What distinguishes many of these "richer" countries is being island economies with a narrow economic base, typically dependent on tourism.

Over half of the Fund's 189 members (54%) have requested emergency help since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, 102 countries according to the IMF press briefing on 21 May. The IMF expected 29 requests to be considered soon.

See the full report for the complete list of 80 countries covered in our tracker.

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.


 
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Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Now at 63 countries

  • Emergency financing now approved for 63 countries; 58 under emergency disbursements, 5 under existing programme reviews
  • Together with other facilities and drawings, and those that are pending, our tracker now stands at 80 countries in all
  • Requests for six countries coming over the next week: Mongolia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, PNG, Guatemala and Rwanda (again)
Stuart Culverhouse @
Tellimer Research
3 June 2020

Our updated tracker* captures 80 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is up by four since our last update). Note that our count of 80 includes four countries that now have two entries.

Since our last update on 27 May, the IMF board has approved three new emergency financing facilities (Bangladesh, Solomon Islands, and The Bahamas), taking the total number of countries now to 58 on our count, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$22.3bn. However, we had also already anticipated these approvals in our grand total as we knew they were coming. Together with the approved programme reviews under their existing arrangements for five countries now (the latest being Honduras, joining those for Armenia, Benin, Georgia and Togo), that takes the total number of countries for which emergency financing has been approved to 63.

According to the IMF board schedule, emergency financing requests for six countries are due over the next week, Mongolia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, PNG, Guatemala and Rwanda, although we record only four new ones in our tracker, as we had already anticipated Mongolia following the recent staff statement, while Rwanda is seeking its second RCF (which will make it the second country, after Kyrgyz Republic, to have its second emergency facility).

The IMF board also approved a programme review for Honduras (second review of SBA/SCF) and FCLs for Peru and Chile over the last week. Board approval of the second review for Barbados is scheduled for 3 June. However, we had already anticipated all of these in our tracker too.

Over half of the Fund's 189 members (54%) have requested emergency help since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, 102 countries according to the IMF press briefing on 21 May. The IMF expected 29 requests to be considered soon.

See the full report for the complete list of 76 countries covered in our tracker. 

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.


 
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Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Where are Angola, Belize, Suriname and Zambia?

  • Emergency financing now approved for 59 countries; 55 under emergency disbursements, 4 under existing programme reviews
  • IMF says another 29 requests are pending consideration by the Board
  • Conspicuous by their absence, so far, are Angola, Belize, Suriname and Zambia
Stuart Culverhouse @
Tellimer Research
27 May 2020

Our updated tracker* captures 76 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pandemic (this is up by four since our last update). Note that our count of 76 includes three countries that now have two entries. 

Since our last update on 20 May, the IMF board has approved two new emergency financing facilities (Jordan and St Vincent), taking the total number of countries now to 55 on our count, and the total amount disbursed under these facilities to US$21.3bn. Together with the approved programme reviews under their existing arrangements for four countries (Armenia, Benin, Georgia, and Togo), that takes the total number of countries for which emergency financing has been approved to 59. 

There have been seven events since our last update on 20 May, although we record only four new ones in our tracker as we had anticipated three of them last time. According to the IMF board schedule, emergency financing requests for Bahamas, Bangladesh and Solomon Islands are due over the next week. The other new entry in our tracker is confirmation by the IMF that Belarus has requested emergency financing. We had already anticipated the two emergency financing facilities (Jordan and St Vincent). The IMF announced staff level agreement on a new SBA for Ukraine too, although we had already anticipated that as well. 

We also note that following the recent staff level agreements for Honduras (second review of SBA/SCF) and Barbados (third review of EFF), both are now on the IMF board schedule in the coming week, 1 June and 3 June, respectively; however we had already anticipated these in our tracker. 

Over half of the Fund's 189 members have requested emergency help since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, 102 countries according to the IMF press briefing on 21 May. The IMF expects 29 requests to be considered soon. However, this ratio (54%) has remained unchanged over the last few weeks, so begs the question, has everyone who wants one asked for one already? 

Conspicuous by their absence, so far, are Angola, Belize, Suriname and Zambia (either for not yet being approved or even knowing if the authorities have formally requested help). The recent IMF press briefing confirmed the Zambian authorities' request for emergency assistance, in addition to their earlier programme request. The IMF briefing noted that "any IMF financial support, including emergency financing, is contingent on steps to restore debt sustainability." The IMF press briefing also confirmed the South African request for emergency assistance. 

See the full report for the complete list of 76 countries covered in our tracker. 

*Our updated tracker seeks to identify countries that have requested IMF financial support, under its different guises, in order to help them deal with the impact of Covid-19. We do not claim it is exhaustive, but hope it provides a useful guide to investors on the current state of play. It is based on information that has been reported by the IMF itself, various media or national governments. We aim to produce regular updates.


 
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