Strategy Note / Global

If Vietnam is a currency manipulator it is not a good one

  • Months' long US investigation of alleged Vietnam currency manipulation could lead to higher tariffs but this is unlikely
  • Real effective exchange rate (REER) implies c30% over-valuation on an absolute basis and 6% relative to 10-year median
  • Vietnam enjoys low tariffs on US exports (eg its garment exports attract half the tariff of those from Bangladesh)
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