Twenty one days after the Eid al-Fitr holidays, new daily cases jumped 19% to 5.8k, with the 7-day average up 16% at 5.7k. Based on long holidays over the past 12 months, the daily cases may potentially increase by 22%-57% 40 days after the holidays. With the first vaccination dose covering 9.7% of 181.6m targeted population as of 6 Jun (24.5% for Jakarta), new cases could be more subdued. Vaccine arrivals in Jun-Jul should accelerate the vaccination drive. A manageable and benign case increase may be positive for the market.
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