Equity Analysis /
Indonesia

ID : Strategy - A year of optimism

    Peter Sutedja
    Peter Sutedja

    Strategy and thematic research Analyst

    Erwan Teguh
    Erwan Teguh

    Head of Indonesia Research

    CGS-CIMB
    30 November 2021
    Published by

    There could be upside risks to the recovery in FY22F given a clearer path to transitioning into an endemic situation, ample domestic liquidity and buoyant commodity prices, notwithstanding taper concerns. Conservative budget management and prudent monetary policy suggest that taper and FFR hike risks would be less disruptive than in 2013-15, allowing macro stability to remain supportive of the recovery. Banks' and corporates' robust balance sheets, as well as the implementation of the Omnibus Law, further support our view that the recovery potential is still underappreciated, based on market valuations that are still close to -1 s.d. Our base case assumes a modest valuation re-rating to -0.5 s.d., suggesting a JCI target of 7,950. In a more optimistic outcome of JCI re-rating to mean P/E, JCI may touch 8,300.