ID : HM Sampoerna - Confidence not fully back yet

4Q21 NP (-5% yoy) was below expectation, despite sales growing 7% yoy, on lower-than-expected GPM as HMSP barely increased prices in 4Q21. The company has raised prices by c.4% YTD (+c.5% yoy), but this would still not be enough to keep margins intact, as the excise tax hike was c.12%. We cut FY22-23F EPS by 10% as we now assume GPM to be flat yoy in 2022F (at 17.1%, the company’s all-time low GPM level). Downgrade to Hold.