Macro Analysis /
Indonesia

ID : Economic -Dec 2020 trade

    CGS-CIMB
    15 January 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    Total trade in Dec (+7.1% yoy) beat expectations, aided by ongoing recovery, which may be hampered in early-2021 by a resurgence of Covid-19 cases. We estimate that Indonesia’s current account surplus may widen to 0.8% of GDP in 4Q20 due to a higher quarterly trade surplus at US$8.3bn. Bank Indonesia may stand pat at the next meeting on 20-21 Jan, as it assesses the impact of PPKM.