ID : Banks - Reassessing risk and reward

We believe the current bond yield cycle is different than previous cycles as Indonesia’s macro backdrop is much more stable vs 2013’s taper tantrum. We think Indonesia big banks should be less impacted by the rise in digital banks in the medium term. With Covid cases seemingly under control, Indonesia banks’ recovery, as seen in the 1Q21 and 4M21 trends, shall remain intact. We realign our preferences to BBNI, BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, BTPS, and BBTN, in that order. Maintain Overweight.

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