The market can be expected to bid up the stock substantially, following CHG’s spectacular 4Q21 result and street 2022 earnings forecast upgrade flows. It currently trades at a 2022 PER only 21.6x, 35% below its long-term average of 33.4x. Our BUY call stands to a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt4.60 (7.3% WACC and a 2.0% terminal growth rate).
Far above our estimate and the consensus
CHG posted a record profit of Bt1,813m for 4Q21, up by 615% YoY and 16% QoQ. The result was 155% above our estimate and 113% ahead of the consensus (revenue was 47% higher and GM 18% fatter than we had assumed). CHG announced a DPS of Bt0.17 for 2H21 (in line our assumption, but above the street), a 4.9% simple yield (XD May 5, payment May 20).