HK : Ping An Insurance - Who says history does not repeat itself?

4Q21’s NBV fell c.60% yoy for the second straight year (Fig 1), due again to actuarial assumption changes. Underlying NBV trends improved (Fig 2). 4Q21 agent numbers tumbled 41% yoy and 15% qoq to 600,343 (3Q21: -33% yoy, -20% qoq) and are 58% lower than 3Q18’s peak (Fig 4). Banking remained strong, with net profit up 26% yoy. Reiterate Add rating but cut TP by 11% to HK$72 on lower FY22F-23F EPS and NBV.