HK : Ping An Insurance - Waiting out near-term sales weakness

While Jan and Feb saw strong sales growth, Mar sales weakened markedly, following regulatory-driven changes in pricing of critical illness products. We conservatively assume sales weakness could continue for 3-4 months, based on a similar sales slowdown after the introduction of Doc. 134 in 2017. Our 2021F NBV growth yoy forecasts for 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q are now 17%/3%/3%/40%, giving a FY21F NBV growth forecast of 12.7% yoy. Reiterate Add rating; TP cut to HK$125 due to lower NBV forecast and mark-to-market of the technology units in our SOP valuation.

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