HK : New China Life Insurance - Life is a constant struggle

2H21 NBV fall of 52% yoy was the worst of peers, driven by declines in margins. 2H21 persistency deterioration was also worse than peers. We find it puzzling that NCI has decided to raise actuarial investment return assumptions (Fig 5) even though government bond yields had been falling. On the plus side, 2H21 agent numbers only fell 12% hoh and were better than most peers. Maintain Add rating. TP cut 6% to HK$28.50 on 2-4% lower EV and 13-14% lower NBV FY22F-24F assumptions.