Equity Analysis /
Hong Kong

HK : Luye Pharma - Lackluster outlook despite introducing Hillhose; maintain HOLD

    Harry He
    Harry He

    Research Analyst

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    CGS-CIMB
    6 April 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    Luye’s 2020 results were lower than expected, mainly due to a revenue slowdown because of COVID-19, a lower gross margin, and higher-than-expected finance costs. We estimate that the upcoming four new products will be worth HK$0.74/share. But the realization of this value requires more concrete execution of product launches and a ramp-up of revenue. We cut 2021/22F EPS by 33.7%/34.4%primarily to factor in the weak 2020 results and the lipusu price cut at end-2020 due to NRDL inclusion, and raised our finance cost assumption because of higher-than-expected net gearing as at end-2020. We adjust our TP from HK$4.65 (8x 2021F P/E) to HK$4.6 (8x 2022F P/E for existing business, plus HK$0.74/share for the four new products).