HK : AIA Group - Word play: Exploring ‘excellent’

Recent investor feedback suggests a lot of interest in AIA’s China operations in Mar, given our estimate of a 35% yoy VONB growth for the month. We note AIA’s use of ‘excellent’ to describe its China performance in 1Q21. Historically, ‘excellent’ refers to an average VONB growth of 41%. Following 2020‘s ‘sub-optimal’ product mix, we see margins improving in 2021F. This bodes well for AIA China’s growth outperforming peers in 2Q21F. Reiterate Add. AIA remains our top pick of the sector, TP: HK$127.

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