We believe that there is a high likelihood that ADVANC will terminate all Main Lease Agreements and Additional Revenue Assurance Agreements after Jan 29, 2032, and the First Revenue Assurance Agreement after Feb 22, 2026, with JASIF. Scope for an upside will come from the setup of a new Infrastructure Fund.
TTTBB’s turnaround to black ink expected in 2026
Assuming: 1) the rental rate hike of 3% in 2023 and of 0.5% thereafter and 2) the termination of the First Revenue Assurance Agreement (or 0.196m or 12% of a total 1.68m core kms) after Feb 22, 2026, we project that TTTBB will turn around from Bt1.33bn net loss in 2025 to Bt750m net profit in 2026. Note that rental expense under the First Revenue Assurance Agreement is estimated at roughly Bt1.9bn/annum or will represent 19% of total rental expenses that TTTBB must pay to JASIF. Hence, we believe that the termination of the First Revenue Assurance Agreement is one of the key factors which will help return TTTBB to profitability and boost its earnings significantly in 2026.