High-for-longer rates: Upside and downside risks for EM

  • With the US economy still running hot, we see under-priced risks that the Fed pauses for longer or even hikes more

  • The Treasury dynamics that fuelled 2023's long-end sell-off could reverse, offering support to strained EM funding costs

  • Dollar strength is amplifying the squeeze on global/EM funding costs, but this could reverse in 2024
November 15th, 2023
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