High-for-longer rates: Upside and downside risks for EM
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With the US economy still running hot, we see under-priced risks that the Fed pauses for longer or even hikes more
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The Treasury dynamics that fuelled 2023's long-end sell-off could reverse, offering support to strained EM funding costs
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Dollar strength is amplifying the squeeze on global/EM funding costs, but this could reverse in 2024
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This report is independent investment research as contemplated by COBS 12.2 of the FCA Handbook and is a research recommendation under COBS 12.4 of the FCA Handbook. Where it is not technically a research recommendation because the subject of the research is not listed on any European exchange, it has nevertheless been treated as a research recommendation to ensure consistent treatment of all Tellimer's research. This report has been produced by the analyst(s) named above (the "Analyst").
The Analyst certifies that the views and forecasts expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject, securities, or issuers specified herein. In addition, the Analyst certifies that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.