Strategy Note /
Global

Happy Earth Day

  • It is a time of confusion across both the Tri Polar World (TPW) and across assets. Tesla is a good example of both.

  • Examples of confusion abound: in Europe markets are pricing in both 80 bp in rate hikes as well as a recession by YE

  • Remain of view that sell off is rotational. not systemic. We are close to end of confusion - beware extrapolation.

Jay Pelosky
Jay Pelosky

TPW Founder & Global Strategist

TPW Advisory
24 April 2022
Published by

Today is the 52nd Anniv. of the first Earth Day, a near lifetime in some respects, a blink of an eye in others. From its humble beginnings, Earth Day today is celebrated by roughly 200 countries around the globe. Its all about Climate Speed, the telescoping of time between actions needed today to ensure we meet Climate targets of 2030 & 2050.

 

Its also a time of clear confusion in financial markets, across the Tri Polar World (TPW) as well as across assets. Tesla neatly marries the two. As we noted in our latest Monthly: Turbocharging the Tri Polar World, Tesla represents one of the first TPW companies, with state of three art production facilities in each main region: Asia in China, Europe in Germany and the US in the Americas. It just pulled off the very rare feat of opening two state of the art production platforms in two continents.

 

It also reported earnings Wednesday post close – earnings that blew away Wall St estimates while confirming plans to sustain production gains of 50% y/y. After years of losses, the company made a small profit two years ago, a multibillion profit last yr. and should smash that in the current year and for years to come. Given surging EV demand it will be able to sell every EV it can produce for years.

 

Here is another example of market confusion. In his comments Musk noted lithium supply as the “fundamental limiting factor” in EV adoption. One would think the Lithium ETF (LIT) would be rocking right? Wrong. It is down close to 20% from its one month high.