Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Sabuy Technology PCL: Getting a swan at a duck’s price

  • Is Bt787m achievable?

  • Clear visibility of 2Q22 earnings

  • Is Bt787m based on a blue-sky scenario?

Napon Jaisan
Napon Jaisan

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
19 May 2022

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years”—Warren Buffet. SABUY fits his quote, we believe. It is one of our favorite stocks, due to the firm’s impressive growth potential. Moreover, SABUY is still underappreciated by investors and the market at large. Therefore, you can now buy a swan at a duck’s price. Once everyone knows that it’s swan, what will its price be then? BUY!

Is Bt787m achievable?

Despite a record quarterly net profit of Bt107m in 1Q22 (up 219% YoY and 40% QoQ), some investors may still doubt our 2022 net profit assumption of Bt787m. SABUY’s 1Q22 net profit accounts for only 14% of our full year projection. However, we expect sequentially higher QoQ profits each quarter, 2Q-4Q22, as new businesses ramp up and build critical mass. Once investors see its strong earnings growth in 2Q22 of Bt160-180m (up 240-280% YoY and 50-70% QoQ) and Bt200-250m in 3Q22 (up 260-350% YoY and 10-60% QoQ), according to our estimates, they will realize that the full-year target is achievable.