Macro Analysis /

Georgian Economy Russia-Ukraine War Impact

    Galt & Taggart
    22 March 2022
    Published byGalt & Taggart

    Georgian economy has track record of navigating different types of global and regional shocks relatively well. This is supported by a stable macroeconomic environment, prudent monetary and fiscal policies, a business-friendly environment, and a healthy banking sector. In the face of Russia-Ukraine war, we expect GDP to remain in positive territory growing by 3.0% in 2022 (revised downwards from our initial forecast of 5.0%) considering already imposed sanctions on Russia, and expect 1.0% contraction in worst case. Notably, central bank vowed to smooth market panic if it arises and government announced that it’s working to minimize negative impact from external shock on the economy. We do not rule out upside in growth outlook as Georgia being a relatively stable destination may attract financial assets from the regional countries.