Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Virgin Wines - Quality shines through - BUY

    Adam Tomlinson
    Adam Tomlinson

    Analyst - Consumer Discretionary

    Contributors
    Anubhav Malhotra
    Wayne Brown
    CGS-CIMB
    25 March 2022
    Published by

    1H’22 reflects the robustness, defensiveness and quality of the Virgin Wines model. Key metrics, such as sales retention and conversion rates have remained at elevated levels and CACs have remained low and steady. While new customer acquisition during peak (Nov-Dec) was tougher than expected, the group maintained a disciplined approach and did not chase top line, thereby maintaining its payback targets and high sales retention rates ensuring those customers they do acquire are of high quality. Looking ahead, the group is putting in further investment to drive new customer acquisition, including expanding the Partnership team and a 55% increase in partner deals going into 2H’22E. We conservatively forecast FY21-24E CAGR of +5% in sales, +9% in EBITDA and +16% in PBT, which looks beatable if customer acquisition picks up earlier. Trading at only 0.7x forward EV/Sales and 7x EV/EBITDA, the shares are way too cheap.