GB : Strategy - Spring budget: Of drops and buckets

The Chancellor in his spring budget announced several smaller adjustments to taxes and laid out his overarching tax plan, including a reduction of income taxes in 2024. Looking at the actual measures, shows that the impact on household consumption and retail sales will be measurable but small in the face of the massive increase in energy costs. For example, the increase in energy prices and fuel costs should reduce monthly retail sales by about 0.3% per month in the coming quarter, in our view. The reduction in fuel tax reduces this drag to 0.2% per month, but it remains a drag on retail sales and consumption in general.