GB : St Modwen - Possible offer at 542p

St Modwen has received a possible cash offer at 542p, a 21% premium to yesterday’s closing price. St Modwen’s board has indicated the valuation would be acceptable, but we wonder whether the price could go higher. We are not surprised that Blackstone sees value here; we wonder if the plan might be to consolidate Industrial & Logistics and spin off housebuilding. Blackstone is showing confidence in the UK. We think read-across should be greatest to Harworth, who trade at a 22% discount to spot NAV, vs the possible offer for SMP at a c.20% spot premium. We increase our target price to 542p (from 450p) and move to HOLD.

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