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GB : Paypoint - FY results show an expanding universe

FY 21 underlying FD EPS fell 22% as expected; £12.5m OFGEM provision but final DPS up 6%. We maintain our FD EPS estimates noting the COVID bounce-back and mix improvement towards Digital. Q4 demonstrated similar patterns to Q3, but Q1 22 has started well, helped by the broader offering and weather. PayPoint is expanding its addressable universe and growth business lines could be 70% of group in three years. IAS 17 spot net debt increased from £12m in FY 20 to £68m in FY 21 due to acquisitions vs. our estimate of £75m. We increase our FY 22 IAS 17 net debt estimate from £25m to £46m (0.8x EBITDA), to reflect the RSM acquisition and Ofgem. The Ofgem situation continues to add uncertainty, but we would view a £12.5m hit as positive from here if that was all that happened. A CY 2021 P/E of 12.1x and yield of 6.4% are attractive, BUY.  


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