Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Next - Consistent double-digit returns on offer

    Adam Tomlinson
    Adam Tomlinson

    Analyst - Consumer Discretionary

    Contributors
    Anubhav Malhotra
    Wayne Brown
    CGS-CIMB
    26 March 2022
    Published by

    Next delivered FY’22 results in line with guidance. Sales so far in FY’23E are growing ahead of expectations in the UK, driven by customers returning to its retail stores. Guidance for FY’23E has been moderated slightly by 1% at the PBT level, largely driven by the closure of operations in Ukraine and Russia, partly offset by higher UK sales. Dividends next year will return to normality, and the Group budgets to deliver £240m of ordinary dividends (of which £160m has been announced today) and £220m of special dividends or buybacks, implying an over 5% yield. We continue to believe Next remains very well positioned to deliver solid double digit returns to investors over the next few years, as store profitability declined have been halted (In 2H’22, Retail operating profit margin was at 15.6% vs. 14.6% in 2H’20 despite sales still being 18% lower), online business has reached material scale, and new world models like Platform Plus and Total Platform enhance earnings and ROCE. The Group’s 15 year stress test model now shows £14.7bn of FCF generation over next 15 years, a return of 180% on the current market cap at a 7% CAGR, under what we think are more aggressive than normal assumptions. Reiterate BUY with a lowered 8,400p TP (from 8,900p).