Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Naked Wines - Good end to the year; but shares should pause for now

    Adam Tomlinson
    Adam Tomlinson

    Analyst - Consumer Discretionary

    Contributors
    Anubhav Malhotra
    Wayne Brown
    CGS-CIMB
    15 April 2021
    Published by

    Naked Wines continued to achieve strong growth in 2H’21, delivering total sales growth of 68% in FY’21, although a notable and understandable decrease from the +80% in 1H’21. An increase in new customer investment in H2 broadly offset a modest beat in repeat contribution leaving our underlying EBITDA loss of -£5.7m unchanged for FY21. No data was given on sales retention (1H’21 +95%) and contribution margin (29% in 1H’21) but we suspect these have been broadly stable. There is a very wide range of outcomes for FY’22 but we assume mean reversion of KPI’s and pedestrian growth in a post COVID world. The group will remain loss making, with elevated customer acquisition spend and high fixed costs and with working capital outflow to support higher inventory levels, cash falls but remains at healthy levels. Shares have been strong but noting the risks that may lie ahead with such elevated customer spend in a post COVID world and being loss the valuation is fair.