Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Knights - A chance to reset

    James Allen
    James Allen

    Analyst - Support Services & Special Situations

    Shailesh Raikundlia
    Shailesh Raikundlia

    Analyst - Financial Services

    CGS-CIMB
    26 March 2022
    Published by

    Knights released an unscheduled update yesterday morning. We cut our FY 22 underlying FD EPS by 22% as a result. We also reduce our FY 23 organic growth estimate from 9% to 5% and cut underlying FD EPS by 24%. We increase net debt (ex leases) from £29m to £34m, which increases our net debt/EBITDA from 1.0x to 1.5x, but still leaves plenty of room versus the covenant of 2.5x. We believe the earnings cut is largely a company specific issue, but it could indicate that the market is starting to soften after a stellar 2021 calendar year. The cut to estimates provides Knights with the opportunity to reset the way it reports, which we see as necessary to rebuild investor confidence. Retain BUY, but reduce our target price from 500p to 290p, with yesterday’s share price reaction looking overdone.