Equity Analysis /
United Kingdom

GB : Ind Goods & Services - Europe outpacing US recovery

    Daniel Cunliffe
    Daniel Cunliffe

    Analyst - Capital Goods

    Follow
    Christian Hinderaker
    Christian Hinderaker

    Analyst - Capital Goods

    Follow
    CGS-CIMB
    8 April 2021
    Published byCGS-CIMB

    Our ECI rose sharply this month to 1.35 (1.22), to the highest since GFC, indicative of 14-16% org. sales growth through 1H22, suggesting a much longer cycle than expected. Europe drove most of this increase with France, Italy and the UK all joining Germany with near record high order-inventory ratios. Europe should outpace the US industrial recovery. Global orders expanded towards record highs while inventories fell further from depressed levels, exacerbating inflationary pressures in the supply chain. US delivery times are the longest since 1973 and the longest on record in Europe. Record high orders & record low inventories suggest we are at the very beginning of the earnings upgrade cycle. Supply is the tightest on record and inflationary pressures continue to build.